Eli Elias, presidente da Brasil Energias, comenta as perspectivas do Mercado Livre de Energia para este ano de 2021.
O executivo estima que para este ano a contratação de energia livre cresça entre 5 e 10%, contudo lembra que devido às incertezas em relação à recuperação econômica em meia à pandemia, o prognóstico muda mensalmente.
Brazil’s free power market expected to see another positive year
A new migration wave to Brazil’s free power market has triggered a 19% growth in 2020 to 10,743 agents, according to latest data from the electric power commercialization chamber (CCEE).
In a statement, CCEE said it expects growth to continue. “At the beginning of the year, 1,104 adhesion processes were already underway,” CCEE said.
Several experts and market players contacted by BNamericas agree and foresee another positive year for the free power market.
Eli Elias, president of Brasil Comercializadora de Energias
“In 2021, we estimate a 5-10% growth in the free power contracting environment, but, due to the uncertainties regarding the economic recovery amid the pandemic, we have reviewed this forecast monthly. We believe the reduction of the limits for special consumers (demand between 500kV and 3MW) to become free consumers also fosters the interest for expanding their installed base in the free market, migrating new plants that were previously in the regulated environment to access other energy sources.”
Moacyr Carmo, president of Argon Energias
“I believe in strong growth, keeping the pace observed in 2020. With the adoption of the hourly price system in 2021, electric power traders will be able to create customized products for their clients, selling electricity for distinct prices according to the client’s hourly consumption. This will allow for a reduction in energy costs compared with ‘flat contracts,’ where consumers pay a fixed price, regardless of the time of the day.”
Walfrido Avila, president of Tradener Comercializadora de Energia
“The free power market should present a similar growth in 2021 from a year earlier, when it reached 31.6% of the national market [up 1.4 percentage point compared with 2019]. It could grow even more if the government unlocked the electric power sector.”
Franceli Jodas, KPMG energy partner
“There is growing pressure for reviewing production costs, which could involve, on a larger or smaller scale, energy prices. And there is the pressure for companies to go greener, the ESG [environmental, social and governance] issue … so they are looking at the free market as a means to access renewable energy.
“We believe the free power market could account for 50% of the total national market by 2025, when a definition regarding [the access to the free environment of] consumers whose loads are below 500kV will have been issued by [power regulator] Aneel. Then we will have an outlook of when the market will become 100% free.”
Márcio Trannin, vice-president of the board of PV solar power association Absolar
“The free power market will be preponderant in the expansion of the system in the coming years. As the government liberalizes the sector, reducing the limits for accessing the free market, more people, including residential consumers, will be entitled to select who will provide energy for them. Meanwhile, as the pandemic has made the power distributors’ load declaration more uncertain, it is very likely the next regulated energy tenders will face lower demand. And, as a highly competitive, democratic energy source, PV solar power will be in a more favorable condition to reach the consumers that will be migrating to the free market.”
Sandro Yamamoto, technical director of wind power association Abeeólica
“Since 2018, we have sold more energy in the free market than in the regulated environment. It was especially important last year since there were no regulated tenders carried out by the government, and we estimate over 2GW were negotiated in the free market in the period. We also notice an enhancement of the quality of free market contracts, with new contracting models being adopted. We believe the market will keep growing and developing in the coming years.”
Paulo Arbex, president of the small hydroelectric plant association ABRAPCH
“What could really reduce the [national] energy bill is an efficient matrix, with the best combination of sources, avoiding additional costs for the construction of transmission lines and minimizing intermittence coverage costs [of solar, wind projects]. Just switching to the free power market does not solve the problem.
“It is necessary to contract what is best, like plants that generate power all the time, while evaluating a combination with intermittent projects. Freedom must be for all, which includes allowing hydroelectric power plants to generate whenever they consider it best, without compromising their capacity to deliver electricity in the dry season. However, today, the hydro plants dispatch according to the necessities of their competitors, which is an aberration when it comes to a free power market. Besides, it is important to equalize taxation on energy sources.”
Yuri Schmidt, president of the energy waste recovery association Abren
“The opening of the free market is of utmost importance for better allocating costs and reducing energy tariffs. As more consumers migrate to the free environment, power distributors will be leaving regulated contracts behind and the government will create an account that will have to be paid by the free market. Contracts involving more expensive sources, like thermoelectric, are not paid by free consumers, which is a market distortion.
“With the gradual opening of the free market, free consumers will bear this legal charge, providing legal security for existing regulated contracts. Therefore, the free market will become more expensive, which is fair and correct. Besides, there will be the necessity for acquiring ballast energy, and we understand that waste-to-energy plants should meet such demand.”